Intressitõus Eesti majapidamiste jaoks hullem kui devalveerimine?

Ühes Maailmapanga analüüsis väidetakse, et ligikaudne intresside tõus 5 protsendipunkti võrra mõjuks kodulaenu võtnud Eesti perekonna rahalisele seisule valusamalt kui krooni devalveerimine umbes veerandi võrra.
Diagramm raportist:

Analüüs pärit eelmisest aastast ning huvitav oleks teada mida näitaks sarnase analüüsi kordamine praegu, kas intressidest sõltumine on vähenenud või hoopis suurenenud?
Loodetavasti vähenenud, sest vaevalt et Euroopa Keskpank raha trükki ja päästeoperatsioone erinevatele pankrotis liikmes-riikidele vähendab. Kui rahatrüki tagajärjel inflatsioon ennast Euro alal lõpuks näitama hakkab, tõstetakse Euribor suure kiiruga tunduvalt kõrgemaks. Sellise stsenaariumi korral saavad Eesti majapidamised veel natuke aega masu tunda. Lootkem siis edasi madalatele Euro-intressidele ja sellest tulenevale inflatsioonile.

Maailmapanga raport ja eestikeelne kokkuvõte EPL'i poolt.

Estonia's non-performing loans to loan portfolio

Estonia's banks non-performing loans to loan portfolio as of end of month (%).

Estonia's non-performing loans to loan portfolio, as end of month %

Went up nicely in the during the crises. Could this have been avoided with devaluation of the kroon? Maybe, maybe not.

Data source: Bank of Estonia

Estonia's GDP

Looking back to 2009, the crises can be seen very well in the numbers. Nominal GDP fell in the second and third quarter of 2009 compared to the same periods in 2008, 17% and 16% respectively. This was a correction that people will remember and I think that all of the consequences remain to be seen yet in the future. I'm thinking about the possibility of people moving to different countries and decreased business confidence for a prolonged time, but about that in some later posts.

Probably last time that the data will be in millions of kroons, because Estonia is now going to use euros starting from January, thanks to slowing of inflation during the crises and some other factors, including low government debt.

Chart included:

Nominal GDP of Estonia and YoY % change

Data from Statistics Estonia

Gross wages in Estonia

Just visualized some data from Statistics Estonia, to better see the gross salary change I added a YoY percent change comparing this year quarterly data to last year.

Seems that on average, the people who managed to keep their jobs, didn't have such a large decline in their salaries, the decline was probably offset all saw by increased productivity.

Average monthly gross wages and YoY change in percent

Unemployment in Estonia

Looking at the data from the official Estonian statistical office - Statistics Estonia, it can be seen that the unemployment picture in Estonia is improving.

Out of a population of 1.34 million people, the official unemployment seems to have reached a peak at about 140 thousand - if the economy won't double dip. The really interesting number is the year over year rise in quarterly unemployment, in the second quarter of 2009 it was almost 250%! Now that is a per cent rise in unemployment only austerity can cause.

A chart to illustrate this:

Estonian Unemployment and YoY % change

Coming up some more charts from data about Estonia.